The group stage of the Champions League is hurtling toward its finale, and with one matchday left, the picture is finally sharpening. Arsenal have already stamped their ticket to the last 16, and Bayern Munich have joined them in safety — but for the rest of Europe’s elite, the final matchday week promises a feverish scramble for places, seedings and pride.
Who is already through to the last 16
Arsenal have been the story of the group stage, sweeping to seven wins from seven. A single point at home to Kairat Almaty will lock up the top spot and keep Mikel Arteta’s side perched above Bayern Munich. For Bayern, a draw at PSV Eindhoven is enough to guarantee a top-two finish. Finishing in the top two carries a tangible reward: the advantage of playing the second leg at home in every knockout round until the final.
The fight for the top eight heats up
This is where the tournament becomes a chess match. Real Madrid and Liverpool, both on 15 points, and Tottenham on 14, can all clinch direct passage to the last 16 with a win on matchday eight. Spurs travel to an already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt, while Liverpool hosts Qarabag, who still harbour hopes of sneaking into the top eight. Real Madrid head to Benfica, a fixture that could swing both clubs’ fates.
Behind them sits a congested pack from Paris Saint-Germain down to Atalanta, all clustered around 13 points. Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City are in that group and need victories — and perhaps a favourable goal difference — to secure automatic qualification. Newcastle’s trip to Paris and Borussia Dortmund’s home clash with Inter Milan are two of the few head-to-heads among contenders, making the rest of the fixtures even more decisive.
Play-off hopefuls and the fine margins
The battle for the play-off places is equally tight. Only four teams — Eintracht Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat — have been eliminated from contention. From Marseille down to Ajax, the margins are wafer-thin, separated by just a handful of points. Even teams sitting in mid-table positions still cling to mathematical hopes of advancing automatically, which keeps the drama alive across the continent.
Only two fixtures next week pit play-off hopefuls directly against one another: Ajax v Olympiacos and Club Brugge v Marseille, meaning many teams’ fates will be decided by results elsewhere and the cruel arithmetic of goal difference.
Key fixtures to watch on the final day
• Ajax v Olympiacos
• Arsenal v Kairat
• Athletic Club v Sporting
• Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
• Barcelona v Copenhagen
• Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal
• Benfica v Real Madrid
• Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
• Club Brugge v Marseille
• Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham
• Liverpool v Qarabag
• Manchester City v Galatasaray
• Monaco v Juventus
• Napoli v Chelsea
• PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich
• Pafos v Slavia Prague
• Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle
• Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
What to expect
Expect nervy finishes, tactical reshuffles and late swings in momentum. With so many teams still alive for both automatic qualification and the play-offs, the final matchday will be a high-stakes theatre of fine margins. Whether it’s a last-gasp winner, a shock upset or a dramatic penalty, Europe’s biggest nights are back — and next week could rewrite the map of the knockout stage.
